Initiation: On June 13, Israel launched Operation Rising Lion, bombing over 100 Iranian nuclear and military targets—Natanz, Fordow, Isfahan, missile production centers and IRGC leadership—all with “US support”
Iran’s Response: Iran retaliated with several ballistic missile barrages toward Israeli cities, including Tel Aviv, Haifa, the Golan Heights, and even the Soroka Medical Center in Beersheba, injuring at least 50 people
US Involvement: On June 23, the U.S. conducted “Operation Midnight Hammer”—airstrikes using bunker-buster bombs on Iranian nuclear facilities at Natanz, Fordow, and Esfahan
🎯 Strategic and Casualty Impact
Damage to Nuclear Capabilities
Israeli claims: The strikes effectively “destroyed” enrichment capacity, killed key scientists, buried uranium under rubble, and significantly degraded Iran’s ability to weaponize nuclear material for years
US intelligence perspective: A classified report noted that while entrances were sealed and some centrifuges disabled, underground structures remained intact, setting back the program by only “months”—not destroyed
Human Costs
Iran: Estimated 600–1,000+ people killed, including hundreds of civilians—red crescent cites ~610 killed, human rights groups report 950 killed, 3,450 wounded
Israel: Around 28–24 civilian and military deaths, including the toll from the Soroka hospital strike
🛑 Ceasefire and Diplomatic Moves
Truce implementation: Starting June 24 at 04:00 GMT, Iran halted strikes first. Israel followed about 12 hours later. Despite both sides accusing each other of minor violations, the ceasefire largely held
Mediation by Trump: US President Trump brokered the staggered truce, claiming victory and announcing that Iran is “not building bombs for a very long time”
Iran’s stance: Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi denied any agreed ceasefire until Israel stopped attacks first
🔥 Regional Ripples
Strike on US base: On June 23, Iran targeted Al‑Udeid Air Base in Qatar in retaliation, launching up to six missiles; Qatar reported no casualties
Drone & covert operations: Israel’s Mossad established an internal drone base in Iran to destroy missile launchers and air defenses, significantly dimming Iran’s strike capacity
Nuclear monitoring: The IAEA is pushing for site access, but Iran has suspended cooperation pending “security guarantees”
🌍 International and Humanitarian Reaction
Global response: France, China, Egypt, Turkey, and the UN have urged calm and diplomatic mediation
Refugee crisis: Over 100,000 Tehran residents fled northward amid panic and fuel shortages following Israeli warnings
War crime concerns: Academic bodies and the ICRC have flagged potential violations of international law—particularly civilian facility strikes—as possible war crimes
🔭 What Comes Next?
Diplomatic negotiations: Trump says U.S.–Iran talks will begin next week
IAEA access: Access to nuclear sites remains stalled; Iran’s parliament has cut cooperation until security is assured .
Nuclear acceleration risk: Iran has threatened to expedite its nuclear development now the truce holds .
Future violations: With both sides accusing each other of breaches, friction remains high. Any flare-up could unravel the fragile ceasefire.
🧭 Final Word
The 12‑day Israel–Iran conflict shook the region—leaving a deep humanitarian toll and shaking confidence in nuclear non-proliferation. While a ceasefire now holds under U.S. mediation, diplomatic challenges lie ahead: Iran’s nuclear future, IAEA oversight, and long-term stability in the Middle East.
