As of May 6, 2025, tensions between India and Pakistan have escalated significantly following a deadly terrorist attack in Indian-administered Kashmir. The situation has led to heightened military readiness, diplomatic expulsions, and international concern over the potential for further conflict between the two nuclear-armed neighbors.
The April 22 Pahalgam Attack
On April 22, gunmen dressed in army fatigues opened fire on a group of Indian Hindu tourists in Baisaran meadow near Pahalgam, resulting in 26 deaths and 17 injuries. The Resistance Front (TRF), a banned militant group, claimed responsibility for the attack. India accused Pakistan of supporting the assailants, a claim Islamabad has denied.
Diplomatic Fallout
In response to the attack, India suspended the Indus Waters Treaty, a 1960 agreement governing water sharing between the two countries, and initiated work on increasing reservoir capacity at two hydroelectric projects in Kashmir. Pakistan criticized this move as a potential act of war and threatened international legal action.
Both nations have expelled diplomats, suspended visas, and closed airspace to each other’s aircraft. Pakistan also suspended the Simla Agreement and closed the Attari-Wagah border crossing.
Military Posturing
Pakistan conducted two surface-to-surface missile tests—Fatah and Abdali—demonstrating defense readiness. India, meanwhile, ordered security drills across multiple states, including air raid protocols. Both countries have reported small arms exchanges along the Line of Control in Kashmir.
International Mediation Efforts
Iran’s top diplomat, Abbas Araghchi, visited Pakistan to mediate escalating tensions and is scheduled to visit India next. The UN Secretary-General has urged both sides to exercise restraint and avoid further escalation.
Economic Implications
Moody’s has warned that the standoff threatens Pakistan’s economic recovery, jeopardizing recent IMF-supported fiscal improvements. India, with limited economic ties to Pakistan, may see minimal impact, though increased defense spending could strain its budget.
Outlook
The current standoff between India and Pakistan remains volatile, with both nations taking aggressive diplomatic and military actions. International actors are actively seeking to mediate and prevent further escalation. The situation underscores the fragility of peace in the region and the importance of sustained diplomatic engagement.
